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Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine prevents millions of clinical malaria cases in children younger than 5 years in Africa's Sahel region. However, Plasmodium falciparum parasites partially resistant to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (with quintuple mutations) potentially threaten the protective effectiveness of SMC. We evaluated the spread of quintuple-mutant parasites and the clinical consequences.
Individual-based models of infectious disease dynamics commonly use network structures to represent human interactions. Network structures can vary in complexity, from single-layered with homogeneous mixing to multi-layered with clustering and layer-specific contact weights. Here we assessed policy-relevant consequences of network choice by simulating different network structures within an established individual-based model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics.
In recent decades, field and semi-field studies of malaria transmission have gathered geographic-specific information about mosquito ecology, behaviour and their sensitivity to interventions. Mathematical models of malaria transmission can incorporate such data to infer the likely impact of vector control interventions and hence guide malaria control strategies in various geographies.
New malaria vaccine development builds on groundbreaking recommendations and roll-out of two approved pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEVs); RTS,S/AS01 and R21/Matrix-M. Whilst these vaccines are effective in reducing childhood malaria within yearly routine immunization programs or seasonal vaccination, there is little evidence on how different PEV efficacies, durations of protection, and spacing between doses influence the potential to avert uncomplicated and severe childhood malaria.
We help shape how the world responds to infectious diseases: guiding vaccine and treatment development, and advising on public health measures to control and eliminate disease. Our mathematical models capture how diseases spread, how severe infections are, and how childhood exposure shapes health across a lifetime.
This project consists of two linked research programs, working to support malaria control and elimination using OpenMalaria: our in-house, open-source, malaria simulation tool.
At the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH) Annual Meetings in 2024 and 2025, our team convened stakeholder engagement sessions on next-generation malaria vaccines.
In this project, our team provides malaria vaccine impact predictions to inform vaccine investment strategies for Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and their partners.
Strep A causes a huge global burden of disease, from sore throats to rheumatic heart disease. Our team is developing a computer simulation model, OpenStrepA, to help researchers tackle this disease.
This project forms a program of modelling to inform the Gate's Foundation’s malaria product development portfolio, otherwise known as the Integrated Portfolio Management (IPM) project.